![]() ![]() We also wait to see where abortion rights – a proven motivating issue for supporters (which recent elections have shown goes beyond just Democrats) – qualifies to be on the ballot in some of the key contested states. How will Americans perceive the state of the economy several months from now? What will the situation look like on the southern US border in the summer and the fall? How many voters will be motivated to show up at the polls because of perceived and real threats to democracy? What impact will Biden’s decisions and actions in Ukraine and Israel have on voters? The map will undoubtedly change as the race formally takes shape and campaigns place their strategic bets on where to spend tens of millions of dollars on advertising, build organizations on the ground, and dedicate candidate and surrogate time on the trail. It will also shift as the issue set evolves for Americans over the course of the election year. There will be endless fixation on national polls in the months to come, but it is the state-by-state battle for 270 electoral votes that will determine who sits in the Oval Office next year.Īnd it is that path to 270 that we attempt to explore here. We base this current outlook on public and private polling, conversations with campaign advisers, Republican and Democratic political operatives, members of Congress, and political professionals involved with outside groups poised to be active in the race. ![]() It is critical to remember that in the last two presidential contests, the loser and the winner were separated by fewer than a combined 80,000 votes across three battleground states out of more than 130–155 million votes cast nationwide. Trump race. Future versions of this outlook will similarly reflect the realities of the race, as best we can assess them at the time. This is an exercise designed to capture where the race stands today. If we have learned anything in recent American political history, it is to expect the unexpected. We don’t even know for certain if Biden and Trump will be the two major party nominees in the fall. However, since that appears to be the likeliest choice at this point, we have explored this initial outlook through the lens of a Biden vs. We should be very clear about what this electoral outlook is and, more importantly, what it is not. It is the first snapshot of the Electoral College landscape in what will likely prove to be another very close and extraordinarily consequential presidential election. It is not a prediction of how things will turn out in November. It’s not even a prediction of what things may look like when the parties gather for their nominating conventions this summer. He faces four criminal indictments consisting of 91 charges related to his attempts to overturn the legitimate 2020 election results, his mishandling of classified documents after leaving office and allegedly obstructing law enforcement’s attempts to retrieve them, and his falsifying of business records to conceal a hush payment to keep an adult film star from going public with claims of an extramarital affair, which he denies, in the weeks leading up to the 2016 election. He’s pleaded not guilty to all charges against him and maintained no wrongdoing. Trump is a seriously flawed candidate who has promised to govern in undemocratic ways and who has already been rejected once by the American people after serving one term as president. Biden is an incumbent president with stubbornly low approval ratings, persistent questions and concerns about his ability to serve another term, and diminished support from some key components of his winning coalition from 2020. Trump rematch – and the electoral math each would need to capture 270 electoral votes – captures the dynamics at play 10 months from Election Day. CNN’s inaugural “Road to 270” electoral map shows President Joe Biden struggling to recreate his Electoral College majority from his successful 2020 run and former President Donald Trump with enough states solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction to put him in a position to win the presidency again. ![]()
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